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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."