The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

A mere eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Formidable Weapon

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

  • The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
  • The winger might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.

Patrick Anderson
Patrick Anderson

A senior database architect with over 15 years of experience in enterprise data solutions and cloud infrastructure.